Posted: 10 Apr 2013 10:56 AM PDT
Gelang Patah - not an easy nut to crack unless the Ghost of Johor issue is raised
The Pirates of Putra Jaya
Gelang Patah is one of the hottest seats right now in the country. UMNO is in full alert after the introduction of Lim Kit Siang into this area. After conducting a situation analysis on the ground, the Pirates is coming to the following conclusion
The results in 2008 should give UMNO a cause to worry. In N48 Skudai, DAP led by Dr Boo managed to overturn a 2,193 majority for BN obtained in 2004 into a landslide 12,854 majority. This was a net shift of over 14,000 votes in 4 years that indicates the GE 12 tsunami did reach the shores of Johor. Dr Boo's giant killing feat in this regard should not be underestimated as well.
Elsewhere, in N49 Nusajaya, BN managed to hold the seat. BN's candidate YB Aziz Sapian managed to beat out PAS's Mohd. Shah Lamat with an over 7,000 majority. This however was still a far cry from the 14,000 majority BN obtained in 2004, to which people attribute it as being caused by Pak Lah.
Now here comes the interesting bit. If you add the number of votes obtained by PR component parties, namely DAP and PAS, it should add to 32,383. This would have allowed PR to gain a comfortable 5,000+ majority and take Gelang Patah away from BN.
However, it did not turn out that way. Instead MCA's Tan Ah Eng beat out Dr Zaleha Mustafa comfortably, obtaining 33,630 votes compared to the 24,779 votes obtained by Dr Zaleha's.
This meant that on a net basis, over 7,000 voters who had voted for PR turned and voted for BN. If we add Malay voters who would have voted for BN in the state and PR in the Parliament in order to support a Malay candidate, this indicates that the actual number of Chinese votes lost by PR in Parliament could be as high as 8,500 to 10,000 votes.
UMNO is very strong in this area and can easily deliver 80 - 85% of the Malay votes and up to 80% of the Indian votes if Ghani contests the seat.
Our assessment of this area is that UMNO support is around 80-85% of the Malays in this area. The net increase in Chinese voters for PR may be strong, but if a solid 80% turns out against Kit Siang, the situation may turn out to be more difficult than usual.
The key issue for DAP in this battle is to ensure that MCA's Jason Teoh is replaced by Ghani. From our observations, if Jason Teoh is repalced, then Jason's supporters will sabotage Ghani at the polls. If DAP can hold on to 80% of the votes secured in 2008, then he will still need 28% of the Malay vote assuming that only of the 30% of the Indian votes are cast in favour of the DAP.
As it stands 28% is touch and go for LKS. Our feel of Malay support for Kit Siang in Gelang Patah could be as low as 10% to 15%. Thus it is quite conceivable that Kit Siang would lose given the current circumstances.
The biggest difficulty for PR right now is its complete lack of a strategy in Johor. The big issue with the Malays in this state is Lim Kang Hoo. But so far, PR has strangely avoided bringing up this issue. Other issues surround the takeover of the land by PTP and this too has been avoided.
This issue becomes critical given the choice of candidate. Right now, Dr Mahathir's factions are pushing for Ghani to vacate his state seat and contest in Gelang Patah against Kit Siang.
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